Mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are tightening pressure on Nigeria’s fragile economy, with petrol prices projected to edge close to N1,000 per litre following a fresh adjustment by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
The refinery has raised its gantry price for Premium Motor Spirit from N774 to N874 per litre, a development that downstream operators say could lift retail pump prices to between N980 and above N1,000 nationwide, depending on distribution costs and location.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said the increase in ex-depot price would inevitably reflect at the pumps.
“Following the increase by Dangote, the pump price will likely range between N980 and over N1,000 per litre, depending on location and logistics. This is largely the effect of the recent hike in global crude oil prices,” he stated.
A senior official at the refinery attributed the adjustment to rising crude prices and shifting global market fundamentals, noting that the review became necessary as replacement costs climbed above earlier projections.
The decision followed a temporary suspension of petrol loading from midnight March 2, 2026, after crude prices surged beyond $80 per barrel. While diesel distribution continued, several depot owners paused petrol sales to avoid losses amid volatile pricing conditions.
Global oil benchmarks reacted sharply to the intensifying standoff involving the United States and Iran. Brent crude rose nearly nine percent to $79.28 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed to $72.16 amid fears of supply disruptions.
Concerns have particularly centred on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route accounting for roughly 20 percent of global petroleum flows. Increased security risks, higher insurance premiums and reduced shipping activity have heightened market anxiety.
Analysts caution that should crude prices breach $90 per barrel, Nigeria may face additional increases in pump prices despite expanding local refining capacity. JPMorgan Chase has projected that Brent crude could soar to $120 per barrel if disruptions in the Gulf persist.
The price surge comes as the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, advances broader investments in power generation, steel manufacturing and port infrastructure. He has consistently maintained that refining is only one component of a long-term industrialisation strategy aimed at strengthening energy security and reducing import dependence.
Although Nigeria’s refining capacity has improved with the 650,000 barrels-per-day facility, the latest adjustment underscores the continued exposure of domestic fuel prices to global crude market shocks.
For consumers battling high inflation and rising living costs, the prospect of N1,000 per litre petrol threatens to intensify pressure on transportation, food supply chains and small businesses nationwide.
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